DEMAND for corrugated is set to dip in the next four to five years, according to packaging market researchers, NOA-PRISM.
Neil Osment, managing director at the firm, which works alongside the paper packaging industry and packaging users, said the current demand for corrugated won’t be sustained
Demand for the material has been growing year-on-year by as much as 4%, according to NOA-PRISM, but is expected to dip.
Neil explained, “Demand for e-commerce packaging has been growing hugely and has contributed significantly towards high demand levels for brown corrugated papers. But with the focus on light packaging, ‘right sizing’, sustainability and an overall drive for a reduction in packaging, the pressure for reducing paper packaging will lead to an overall slowing in the growth of paper volumes, both by area as well as tonnage.
“In the long-term, we believe both white and, more significantly, brown or unbleached papers are likely to slow in growth from the heady days of 2017/18, to more modest growth by around 2020/21.”
NOA-PRISM’s industry analysis claims that while pressure to switch away from plastic will fuel demand for corrugated, this impact won’t be felt until the longer term.
Neil continued, “We believe it will take around ten years for corrugated to penetrate plastic volumes, mainly because expensive machinery that automatically packs product using plastic packaging solutions will only gradually be replaced by brand owners.
“So the slowing demand for bleached and unbleached papers in four or five years’ time, coupled with the delayed upturn presented by switching from plastic to fibre-based solutions in ten plus years, is likely to lead to a low in the next half decade in the growth for corrugated.”
